Could nuclear weapons testing resume as global tensions rise?

Only North Korea has detonated nuclear weapons during the 21st century, but recent indications suggest Russia, the US and China are preparing to resume tests

By Matthew Sparkes

17 October 2023

An intercontinental ballistic missile is test-fired, without a live warhead, as part of Russia’s nuclear drills on 26 October 2022

Russian Defense Ministry Press O/UPI/Shutterstock

Nuclear tensions have risen since the invasion of Ukraine, with Russia and other nuclear-armed powers reportedly updating long-disused weapon test sites in preparation for use once more. Now, Russian lawmakers have voted to begin the process of rolling back a treaty banning such tests. Are we about to see a return of the most destructive weapons in the world?

The moratorium against nuclear testing rests on an uneasy patchwork of international treaties. The Limited Test Ban Treaty was signed by the UK, US and Soviet Union in 1963, forbidding testing of these weapons in the atmosphere, underwater or in outer space, but permitting underground trials. Then, in 1996, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) theoretically put a stop to underground testing too.

Yet the CTBT remains unfinished. Despite 178 states having ratified it, the treaty will not officially come into force until action from eight more nations; China, Egypt, Iran, Israel and the US have signed, but not ratified, the agreement, while India, Pakistan and North Korea never signed it.

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Despite this, nuclear test bans have proven effective. More than 2000 tests took place between the first US detonation, Trinity, in 1945, and the drafting of the CTBT. Since then, India and Pakistan each carried out a handful of tests in 1998, while North Korea is the only nation to have tested a nuclear weapon in the 21st century, with its last test taking place in 2017.

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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent ongoing war may have changed its outlook on testing, however. Russia ratified the CTBT in 2000, but on 17 October its lower parliamentary house, the Duma, passed a measure to revoke ratification with 412 votes in favour – with none against and no abstentions. Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said that the decision was being made because of the failure of the US to ratify the treaty and its “irresponsible attitude to global security issues”.